After the Nikkei 225 reached the ¥70,000 range in June, it stalled at around ¥65,000 in September. Cracks are beginning to appear in the market supported by two driving forces, the AI rally and the historically weak yen, and its future course is drawing attention.
The Nikkei 225, which reached the ¥70,000 range for the first time in history in June, has stalled at around ¥65,000 since the start of September. It closed at ¥65,020 on 4 September, up ¥806 from the previous day. Although AI and semiconductor-related stocks have led the market higher, gains have been difficult to extend and little of the euphoria remains.
This article breaks down the two engines that have supported the Nikkei 225, namely the AI memory boom and the historically weak yen, and examines how long they may last. The memory supporting AI-related demand includes DRAM and NAND-type memory. HBM uses a structure in which DRAM chips are stacked, and Samsung Electronics, SK hynix and Micron are identified as the 3 companies with mass-production capacity.
Kabutan points out that rising demand for HBM production could reduce the supply of conventional DRAM, resulting in tighter conditions and higher prices across the memory market. This phenomenon, known as AI inflation, is said to be spreading throughout the broader market.