Freeport-McMoRan announced an upward revision to earnings per share to $0.78, while lowering its 2026 production outlook due to delays at the Grasberg mine. Although the sales mix is expected to shift from Indonesia to South America, the company also provided an earnings outlook for 2029.
Freeport-McMoRan raised EPS 56% year on year to $0.78. Alongside this, the company indicated that its value will depend on its ability to meet demanding shipping and cost targets, given the long-term scale and complexity of its asset base.
The delay in operations at the Grasberg mine is cited as the biggest source of variability, resulting in a downward revision to the 2026 production outlook. Under the current model, the shift in the sales mix from Indonesia to South America is expected to result in a 47.4% decline in sales from Indonesia and a 25.4% increase in sales from South America.
The outlook suggests that a smooth recovery at Grasberg, stable shipments from Indonesia and continued capital investment in Baghdad will be key. The upward revision could support market sentiment, but avoiding delays and policy friction and maintaining a stable supply of copper shipments will be important.
Current profit is $2.9 billion, and analysts expect revenue to grow at approximately 17.4% annually, with profit reaching $6.7 billion by 2029. The 2029 revenue forecast is $41.9 billion, and one view is that profit would need to be approximately 2.3 times higher to align with that year's consensus.