Expectations for upside surprises in corporate earnings are likely to lift the Nikkei 225 as upcoming earnings announcements approach. Attention is also focused on stocks centered on AI and semiconductor-related names.
The Nikkei Stock Average in September is expected to remain range-bound, with inflation concerns and a rising interest-rate trend acting as headwinds while strong U.S. equities provide support. The Nikkei's direction remains undecided, both to the upside and downside, and the market is expected to remain stuck in a range.
Corporate earnings are viewed as highly likely to exceed expectations and are considered the main factor currently supporting share prices. Market forecasts for net profit are often revised upward in line with earnings-announcement schedules, and a similar trend is expected in the next earnings season.
Figure 1 shows earnings announcements for fiscal 2026 and the performance of the Nikkei Stock Average. After earnings announcements for companies with March year-ends, forecasts for full-year net profit growth have been updated. The Nikkei tends to move to a higher level during each earnings-announcement period.
Among the 20 largest Nikkei 225 constituents by weighting, many of the top names are in the electrical equipment sector and are related to AI and semiconductors. Their combined weighting exceeds 60%. Market EPS forecasts have been revised upward for many stocks, and the view that next fiscal year's earnings outlook is favorable is spreading.