Next week's markets will focus on the initial performance of SpaceX's U.S. listing, developments in the Middle East and the U.S. and Japanese monetary policy meetings, with exchange rates and the response of equity prices also in focus.
U.S. stocks rose at the end of this week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing higher than the previous day. SpaceX's listing lifted investor sentiment, with its share price on the first day reaching a level approximately 19% above the IPO price. MSCI has indicated that it is considering early inclusion after the listing, while the Nasdaq-100 is also expected to seek early inclusion. Although concerns remain over profit-taking pressure in AI and semiconductor-related stocks, some expect space-related stocks to resume their advance.
Although the Nikkei 225 has risen sharply from the end of March, nearly half of the stocks on the Prime Market remain lower over the same period. Rebalancing-related selling in lagging stocks and dip-buying could occur at the same time, and over the medium to long term, investors may increasingly turn their attention to laggards.
The U.S. and Japan will both hold monetary policy events next week. The Bank of Japan's policy meeting will take place on 15-16 June, and an additional rate hike is widely regarded as almost certain. However, with Governor Ueda absent, the press conference is seen as unlikely to produce a major surprise. The FOMC will meet on 16-17 June, with interest rates expected to remain unchanged. If the statement or the Chair's press conference strengthens expectations for a rate hike later this year, it could affect the dollar.
In the foreign-exchange market next week, the dollar-yen rate is expected to move toward ¥161 against the backdrop of the U.S. and Japanese policy events, but concerns about intervention by the Japanese government are likely to cap further gains. As speculation about intervention intensifies, some believe its impact at current levels would be limited.