Nomura Securities has raised its outlook for the Nikkei 225. Under the main scenario, the forecast has been raised to 63,000 at the end of 2026, 65,000 at the end of 2027 and 68,000 at the end of 2028. Although the NT ratio remains elevated, mean reversion has also been suggested.
Following the recent rise in the Nikkei 225 and the NT ratio, the Market Strategy Research Department of Nomura Securities has raised its outlook for the Nikkei 225, forecasting 63,000 at the end of 2026, 65,000 at the end of 2027 and 68,000 at the end of 2028 under its main scenario. The firm plans to maintain its TOPIX forecasts at 4,000, 4,200 and 4,400, respectively, while focusing on the potential for TOPIX to catch up. EPS growth is forecast at 11.6% for fiscal 2026, 12.7% for fiscal 2027 and 6.3% for fiscal 2028.
The NT ratio currently stands at 16.37x, near a record high, but mean reversion has also been observed, according to the report. The rise in April and May was driven largely by the contribution of 4 stocks, and the report indicates that the NT ratio will require close monitoring going forward.
Under the upside and downside scenarios for the Nikkei 225, the index is estimated at 70,500 and TOPIX at 4,500 in the upside scenario, while the downside scenario assumes 53,000 for the Nikkei 225 and 3,500 for TOPIX. An upside is expected if the growth strategy scheduled for June raises expectations for an expansion in potential growth and business portfolio reforms, while a downside is expected if factors restraining economic activity intensify.