An article forecasting dollar-yen for November and the first week reviews October's movements, changes in long-term interest rates, the background to hedge funds switching to yen buying, and the possibility of intervention by Japanese and US authorities. It forecasts a range of ¥152 to ¥160 for November and ¥155 to ¥159 for the first week.
Dollar-yen traded broadly in a range of ¥157 to ¥159 in October, but briefly fell to near ¥156 late in the month. The total range was narrow, at less than ¥3.
Lower long-term interest rates were cited as contributing to a weaker US dollar and stronger yen, and there was a view that long-term interest-rate movements are linked to equity-market performance and shifts in funds into safe-haven assets.
The yen positions of hedge funds and other speculators turned net long from September, and this trend continued in October. Movements around the 120-day moving average are regarded as a potential turning point.
Dollar-yen is forecast to trade in a range of ¥152 to ¥160 in November, and ¥155 to ¥159 in the first week of November. The outcome of the US midterm elections and the release of US economic indicators are expected to affect the market.