The view that the Japanese yen could strengthen to the 70-yen range in 2030 was highlighted, while the possible recurrence of coordinated Japan-U.S. intervention and developments in U.S. interest rates are emerging as focal points for the foreign-exchange market.
In an interview, it was pointed out that a "wall" could be built above ¥163 to the dollar, and the outlook was presented that the yen could strengthen if coordinated intervention by Japan and the United States were to resume. The view was also expressed that the current situation differs from intervention based on a political agreement such as the 1985 Plaza Accord, while the premise that long-term interest rates have a major influence on developments in the United States was reaffirmed.
If U.S. long-term interest rates decline, downward pressure on the dollar could build, potentially driving the yen higher toward the second half of 2026, around the time of Bank of Japan rate hikes. It was also pointed out that the Bank of Japan's rate hikes to date had not had a significant effect on the exchange rate, underscoring once again the difficulty of intervention.
Examples comparing developments in other countries were also cited, including the fact that the South Korean won has shown movements similar to the Japanese yen over the past 10 years and has weakened despite maintaining high interest rates without pursuing monetary easing. The view was emphasized that future foreign-exchange market trends will depend on developments in U.S. policy rates.