If China’s unification with Taiwan were to become reality, the expected consequences would include the hollowing-out of governing institutions, the normalization of a military presence, the restructuring of an economy centered on semiconductors, and changes to the language of education.
After unification, the roles of democratic institutions such as Taiwan’s Legislative Yuan, Control Yuan and Judicial Yuan are expected to be significantly reduced, or those institutions could be transformed into hollow local-government bodies. The erosion of Hong Kong’s one country, two systems framework is cited as a precedent. In addition, the People’s Liberation Army and the People’s Armed Police are expected to be stationed in Taiwan, with surveillance and repression of opposition activities potentially intensified in the name of maintaining public security.
On the economic front, Taiwan’s high-tech industries, particularly semiconductor companies such as TSMC, are expected to be absorbed into China’s mainland economic sphere, with technology transfers and transfers of management control likely to accelerate. The withdrawal of foreign companies is also expected to gather pace, raising concerns about the hollowing-out of Taiwan’s innovation hubs and the deterioration of economic conditions and employment.
Culturally, the Chinese government could promote cultural integration by removing references to Taiwan’s history from school curricula and making the use of Chinese in public life compulsory. While the mobilization of religious networks could be encouraged, organizations with pro-independence views and other groups are expected to face dissolution and purges.