The article examines the real demand behind the generative AI boom and the current situation and outlook based on the experience of an investor who built ¥270 million in assets and a semiconductor trading company executive. It also covers movements in major stocks, supply and demand as seen on the ground, and caution over overheating.
The spread of generative AI drove a sharp rise in US semiconductor stocks, and the wave of enthusiasm reached Japan's stock market. Based on a jointly authored book by individual investor Okeidon and semiconductor trading company executive Yuya Shinkawa (新川裕也), the article excerpts and reconstructs part of their discussion to explain both real demand and market enthusiasm.
Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Disco and Lasertec were among the AI-related stocks attracting attention and were said to have contributed to the Nikkei 225's record-high updates. Market participants are weighing expectations that generative AI will be the next big wave against whether that growth will translate into actual business results.
Some market participants say that real demand for generative AI, including expanding demand for HBM, is helping boost the results of semiconductor manufacturers and equipment makers. At the same time, some are wary of overheating and point to the possibility that share prices have risen out of line with the real economy.
Expectations remain that the AI-related market will continue to grow, but investment decisions must assess both earnings and technological capabilities. Shinkawa and Okeidon emphasize the importance of actual results on the ground, rather than popularity alone.