On 4 November 2026, gold prices remained locked in a battle in the low $3,900s. The long-term upward drivers are unchanged, but speculative trading is influencing the market.
Gold prices are currently continuing to trade in the low $3,900s. While long-term upward drivers remain in place, the view has been expressed that speculative trading is giving the market the appearance of an “aerial battle.” Some speculators still hold gold-buying positions above $4,000, and it has been pointed out that selling could accelerate when a rebound begins.
From the perspective of regular investment, some believe that a break below $4,000 would be an opportunity to add to gold holdings. Signs of a recovery in physical demand are beginning to emerge in China and India, and some believe that buyers are starting to reverse their previous reluctance to buy at high prices. Others have pointed out that purchases by the official sector, including central banks, remain stable.
As for the impact of the US situation surrounding the midterm elections, the dilution of the dollar's value as the world's reserve currency is expected to continue regardless of which administration controls the government, and gold buying itself is expected to continue. Futures leverage trading is more conspicuous than physical buying, while physical purchases are said to remain subdued. Some believe that a full-scale market recovery will be pushed back until 2027 or later.
Summary
Overall, gold prices remain locked in a battle in the low $3,900s, with speculative trading moving the market. A break below $4,000 is viewed as a buying opportunity for regular investors, and expectations for a recovery in physical demand are rising. Developments surrounding the US midterm elections are not expected to bring about a major change in gold's long-term trend, and futures movements are expected to continue driving the market more than physical buying.