As reports surrounding the future of NVIDIA founder Jensen Huang spread worldwide, Tim Cook’s name emerged as a candidate for the next CEO, with the probability shifting sharply for a time. Market views have fluctuated, and internal and external candidates are the subject of discussion.
Following reports of an affair involving NVIDIA founder Jensen Huang, betting intensified rapidly after the board discussed his future. According to Kalshi data, the probability of Cook becoming CEO briefly surged to approximately 91% before settling at around 10%. The markets cover not only “dismissal by year-end” but also “who will be the next CEO.”
Among internal candidates, Vice President Ian Buck is at around 30% and CFO Colette Kress at around 26%, with their combined probability expected to exceed half. Meanwhile, Cook’s probability is close to zero on Polymarket and has fallen to around 27% on Kalshi.
Other names discussed as external candidates for Cook’s position include Sony Xu, Arm CEO Rene Haas, and candidates from Huang’s family, although the basis differs by market. The board is conducting an independent investigation, and no official succession plan has been announced at this time.
The share price has trended lower as coverage has expanded, and market capitalization has fallen by just under 30%. The impact has spread to Asian markets, with major Taiwanese stock indexes also declining. Ultimately, the key issue is the board’s decision, and the company’s future could depend on whether a succession plan exists.