An outlook for the Australian dollar/yen and New Zealand dollar/yen markets next week, including how Australian employment data may affect expectations of an additional RBA rate hike. The RBA minutes are due on the 13th, followed by employment data on the 15th.
This week, overseas factors including the outlook for US monetary policy and uncertainty surrounding Europe influenced movements in the Australian and New Zealand dollars. The decline in the September Westpac Consumer Confidence Index, which affected Australian consumer sentiment, the market reaction following the RBA's rate hike on 29 September, and downside surprises in August CPI unsettled the outlook for employment and inflation.
Next week, the RBA minutes will be released on the 13th, allowing the market to assess whether an additional rate hike was discussed. Employment data will be released on the 15th, with attention focused on whether employment conditions have deteriorated more than the RBA expects. Depending on these indicators, expectations for an additional rate hike in November could be affected.
Outside Australia, China's September trade balance, CPI and PPI will also be market factors. If concerns over a slowdown in the Chinese economy intensify, the effects could spread to the Australian economy and weigh on the Australian dollar. Expectations of an additional US rate hike and political uncertainty in Europe could also affect the yen, Australian dollar/yen and New Zealand dollar/yen.
For Australian dollar/yen, around ¥110.64 and near ¥111.00 are expected to be watched as upside targets through late October, while around the recent low of ¥108.70 is likely to function as downside support. New Zealand dollar/yen is expected to remain in a range of around ¥88.16–¥89.08.