With the Nikkei 225 holding above ¥60,000, the market's focus will be on AI-related shares ahead of NVIDIA's earnings announcement on the 17th and Anthropic's IPO on the 19th. Depending on the results, funds could flow into related stocks, or profit-taking could emerge on a rebound.
The Tokyo market is expected to carry over the previous Friday's levels into the new week, while carefully assessing trading at the upper end of the range, and movements in AI-related shares are likely to determine the market's direction. NVIDIA's earnings and Anthropic's IPO will attract market attention, and fund flows could change significantly depending on post-earnings price movements and the share price trend after listing.
Although the Nikkei 225 rose sharply last week, there was also a period of temporary profit-taking after reports concerning NVIDIA's CEO. Reports that Anthropic's lead underwriters were considering raising the indicative price range for its IPO prompted speculation that this could lead to a reassessment of AI-related stocks.
NVIDIA shares fell approximately 13% over the past week, but the closing price at the end of the week had begun to recover from the low. The market continues to view uncertainty over the financials and the possibility of a less-than-expected response to the earnings results as sources of concern, while there is also speculation that creditworthiness may improve as progress is made in restraining borrowings.
Among domestic and overseas economic indicators, market consensus is for July–September gross domestic product (GDP) to rise 0.1% quarter on quarter, or 0.2% annualised. Core October CPI is expected to rise 2.4% year on year, and its potential impact on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy operations is being watched. Expectations for a BOJ rate hike in December and developments surrounding currency intervention are also acting as sources of market caution.
The main events scheduled for next week include NVIDIA's earnings, developments in Anthropic's IPO, GDP, CPI and the FOMC minutes. The relative strength of interest in AI-related shares and the shift of funds into non-AI stocks are expected to determine the market's direction.
This is a breaking report based on publicly available information, and the situation may change depending on future announcements.