This week brings a series of important events, including the U.S. Senate vote on the Clarity Act, the FOMC meeting and the Bank of Japan meeting. Market indicators include outflows from spot ETFs, inflows into ETH ETFs and rising futures open interest.
The focus this week will be the U.S. Senate vote on the Clarity Act in the early hours of the 16th and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting on the 18th. The Clarity Act vote is required for deliberations to begin, and passage would raise expectations for progress in establishing a regulatory framework, while rejection would fuel concerns that deliberations could stall. With regard to the FOMC, the interest-rate outlook will be indicated in the dot plot, and the yen exchange rate and carry trades could affect BTC. At the Bank of Japan meeting, the direction of policy rates could contribute to yen depreciation. Each event is expected to produce a wave-like pattern in BTC, linked to demand in the spot market and futures positions.
Outflows from spot ETFs have been substantial, totaling approximately $462.7 million over 4 business days, with ARKB and GBTC accounting for most of the outflows. Meanwhile, spot ETH ETFs have seen inflows, indicating a divergence in ETF demand between BTC and ETH. In the futures market, 24-hour trading volume significantly exceeds spot-market volume, and open interest has built up to a high level. Although exchange net flows of BTC have recently begun to shift toward net inflows, the longer-term trend is still regarded as one of outflows, and the view has been expressed that ETF flows and spot-market volume should be prioritized when assessing spot-market supply and demand.