Next week will feature major central bank events and key data releases, including the U.S. FOMC and BOJ monetary policy meeting, as well as the BOE and European indicators. Risk factors for late September are expected to be concentrated across North America, Europe and Asia.
In North America, led by the United States, the September Empire State Manufacturing Index is scheduled for 15 September and September retail sales for 16 September. Also attracting attention on 16 September will be the FOMC’s interest rate projections and press conference. As movements in oil prices could affect the inflation outlook, market attention will focus on any changes to the interest rate outlook and the resulting market reaction.
In Europe, the Eurozone consumer price index, including the revised figure, will be released on 17 September. The BOE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting will also take place on 17 September, while market expectations for monetary policy could shift depending on the U.K. August employment data on 15 September and U.K. August CPI on 16 September.
In Asia and Oceania, the BOJ monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 18 September Japan time, followed by a press conference by BOJ Governor Ueda (植田). A 25-basis-point rate hike is seen as almost certain, and with expectations for another hike by year-end, market participants will look to the statement and the governor’s remarks for clues about the pace of future increases.
In emerging markets, South Africa’s July retail sales are due on 16 September. However, movements in the dollar and yen following monetary policy events in developed economies are likely to be the key driver of emerging-market currencies.