The BOJ raised its policy rate to around 1.25%, and the US Federal Reserve also decided to raise rates. Attention is focusing on trends in banks' net interest income and corporate profits, as well as tax policy discussions surrounding making government bonds eligible for NISA.
On 18 September 2026, the BOJ raised its policy rate to around 1.25%, and the US Federal Reserve also decided to raise rates. Ordinary profit at Japanese companies reached a record high in the April–June quarter, making the connection between the rate-hike cycle and the stock market's response a key focus.
Former institutional investor Izumida Ryosuke (泉田 良輔) estimates the tug-of-war between the drag from interest rates and profit growth by breaking stock prices down into the product of earnings and the PER. The article also explains how bank stocks earn money during periods of rising interest rates and the situations in which they are disadvantaged.
At the same time, requests for tax reform to make government bonds eligible for NISA have emerged. As part of the summer discussions, the article compares the tax-free benefits of using the NISA allowance for government bonds with those of using it for equities, and considers how to use the limited lifetime allowance of ¥18 million.
Against this backdrop, the article suggests how the relationship between domestic and overseas interest-rate conditions and corporate earnings, as well as the possibility of tax changes, could affect the investment environment.