The IMF's published World Economic Outlook forecasts that Japan's nominal GDP will be overtaken by India and the UK in 2027, making Japan the world's sixth-largest economy. It also notes that the UK's overtaking of Japan could come earlier than previously expected.
The IMF's latest forecast shows Japan's nominal gross domestic product (GDP) reaching $4.3419 trillion in 2026 and $4.4676 trillion in 2027. India's GDP is expected to grow from $4.0602 trillion in 2026 to $4.5211 trillion in 2027, while the UK's is forecast to rise from $4.2684 trillion to $4.4889 trillion over the same period. As a result, Japan is expected to be overtaken by India and the UK, falling to sixth place globally.
The IMF forecasts global economic growth of 3.1% in 2026, an upward revision of 0.1 percentage points from its July forecast. Japan's 2026 growth forecast was revised up to 0.7%, with analysis indicating that stronger AI demand is offsetting the impact of soaring energy prices. The continued depreciation of the yen against the dollar was also cited as a factor.
The report also notes that, compared with the previous forecast, the timing of the UK's overtaking of Japan is expected to move forward from 2029. In addition, the latest forecast includes further analysis of the global growth outlook and presents the view that changes in the international environment will affect countries' relative rankings.