The Japan vaccine market is projected to expand from US$4.49 billion in 2025 to US$9.97 billion in 2035, with mRNA and sa-mRNA technologies, demand from older adults, and strengthened infectious disease measures identified as key growth drivers.
The Japan vaccine market is projected to reach approximately US$4.49 billion in 2025 and expand to approximately US$9.97 billion by 2035 at a compound annual growth rate of 8.3%. Key growth drivers include the adoption of new technologies, government support for development and vaccination, improvements to healthcare infrastructure, and rising demand for preventive healthcare as the population ages.
The market is showing particularly strong interest in mRNA-based and sa-mRNA technologies. ARCT-154/Kostaive is cited as an example of the introduction of a self-amplifying mRNA (sa-mRNA) vaccine in Japan, with manufacturing scalability and the ability to address variant strains attracting attention. In September 2024, CSL and Arcturus Therapeutics' sa-mRNA vaccine was reportedly approved for use against the JN.1 lineage.
Expanding vaccine supply capacity is also a key issue. Takeda and Biological E. Limited expanded production capacity for the dengue vaccine Qdenga in February 2024 and outlined plans to supply 100 million doses annually by 2030. WHO is reported to have approved Qdenga in May 2024, and the international approval could affect the business expansion of Japanese companies.
As Japan's population continues to age, vaccines for adults and older adults are becoming increasingly important, with influenza, pneumococcal, shingles, and RSV vaccines emerging as key areas of market expansion. In the RSV vaccine segment, GSK's Arexvy has been approved in Japan, and growth in the older-adult segment is expected to be a major market driver.
Overall, Japan's vaccine market may undergo a structural shift from one centered on routine childhood immunization to a preventive healthcare market spanning the course of people's lives. Going forward, mRNA and sa-mRNA, dengue, combination vaccines, government support, and stronger supply infrastructure are expected to be the key themes.