Will the Yen’s Decline Continue Despite Coordinated Japan-US Intervention? Individual Investors Predict the Level of the “Next Foreign Exchange Intervention” [Foreign Exchange Short-Term Survey No. 207]

The survey conducted by the 外為どっとコム Research Institute collected 455 valid responses from 21 to 25 August 2026. Respondents were asked for their outlook over the next month for USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY, with figures including the high, low, average and median forecasts presented. While spot rates had moved toward a weaker yen from the end of the previous month, the median forecasts showed a slight shift toward a stronger yen, a weaker euro and a stronger US dollar.

Questions 2 to 4 reported forecasts for the highs and lows of EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY, respectively, along with movements in the median forecasts. Higher oil prices and central-bank outlooks were cited as factors behind the yen’s weakening trend, while the possibility that intervention concerns had also influenced the results was noted. Median high forecasts ranged broadly from the ¥186 to ¥217 levels, with forecasts tilting slightly toward a stronger yen and weaker euro than in the previous month.

Questions 5 and 6 asked which currencies respondents wanted to buy or expected to strengthen over roughly the next 3 months, and which they wanted to sell or expected to weaken. The US dollar ranked first and the yen second, while the response shares for emerging-market currencies such as the Turkish lira and Mexican peso tended to increase, suggesting the influence of interest-rate differentials and swap income. The yen continued to draw a high number of responses as a currency respondents wanted to sell, reflecting the coexistence of expectations for further yen weakness and concerns about intervention.

Question 7 was a special question on the impact of the coordinated Japan-US intervention at the end of July. The most common response was that the intervention would only temporarily restrain the yen’s decline, after which the yen would weaken again, followed by views that the yen would return to a weaker level within a short period and that it would gradually strengthen. The prevailing view was that the intervention would not bring about a long-term shift in the trend. In Question 8, the 164–165 yen range was cited most frequently as the level for additional intervention, reflecting both the view that intervention would be carried out again if the yen weakened beyond its 38-year high and the possibility that intervention could occur at other levels.