USD/JPY temporarily recovered to the 156 range. While dollar buying advanced following the FOMC’s 0.25% rate hike, the situation is such that a trading strategy is to be decided after confirming the BOJ meeting and Governor Ueda’s remarks. Trends in IMM yen-buying positions are also attracting attention.
The IMM yen positions announced last week showed increased net buying from the previous week, resulting in a net long position of 10,796 contracts. Yen positions were net long for the first time since 24 February this year, drawing attention as an indicator of short-term traders’ positioning. This has prompted the view that short-term yen shorts will be covered and that yen buying will temporarily moderate.
The US FOMC decided on a 0.25% rate hike. As inflation accelerated amid rising crude oil prices and other factors, the US dollar rose broadly and USD/JPY recovered to the 156 range. Market participants focused more on the rate-hike decision this time than on the outlook for the timing of the next rate cut.
The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting is scheduled for the 18th, and the content of Governor Ueda’s press conference is expected to be key to trading strategies. With a 0.25% rate hike considered to be already priced in, whether Governor Ueda signals consecutive rate hikes could determine the yen’s next move.