The Nikkei Average is again testing the upper boundary of a large triangle consolidation pattern, and the behavior of the 5-day moving average and the ability to hold the support line are expected to determine the market's direction ahead. Momentum indicators are trending lower, making the zero line a key focus.
The Nikkei Average fell back at times without reaching the upper boundary of a large triangle consolidation pattern, and a scenario in which it falls below the 5-day moving average and fails to recover is also conceivable. This could bring the index closer to the 75-day moving average and the upward-trending 25-day moving average, while raising concerns about a downside break.
At present, the key point is whether the index can hold above the support line. If it does, the market could turn higher after falling below the 5-day moving average. If it fails to hold and breaks below the line, the downtrend could strengthen, raising concerns that the index could also fall below the 75-day and 25-day moving averages.
Momentum indicates a declining phase, and whether it falls below the zero line is expected to be the next turning point. If momentum remains below the zero line and fails to recover, downward pressure could intensify, bringing breaks below the support line and moving averages into focus. Conversely, if a bottom or a shift to an uptrend is confirmed, expectations for a rebound could increase.
The October market is approaching the midpoint of the month, and a period requiring caution is expected to continue. The market's next direction is expected to depend on whether the support line holds and on the movement of momentum indicators.