The market outlook points to a rising trend in US stocks, supported by growing expectations of a US-Iran agreement. However, movements from 3 to 5 August were highly volatile, depending on the performance of technology and semiconductor stocks, with the market reaching record highs at times.
From 3 to 5 August, the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded near record highs, with reports attributing the rise in share prices to President Trump's remarks on halting attacks on Iran and easing concerns over the situation in the Middle East. Crude oil futures were on a downward trend, prompting widespread views that investors' risk appetite had recovered. Gains in technology stocks drove the market, with notable moves in large-cap stocks including Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon.
On 8/4-5, gains in companies that reported strong earnings and a rebound in semiconductor stocks pushed the market higher, while the SOX Index closed at elevated levels. Defensive stocks and the banking sector, by contrast, showed moves that attracted less market attention, and the market remained in a phase where the direction of share prices was influenced by developments in crude oil. Attention focused on SpaceX's share price and moves in AI-related stocks, including AMD, while macroeconomic factors such as the release of the employment report and the outlook for interest rates remained key market concerns.
As for market trends from late July to early August, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 continued to show signs of reaching record highs amid rising expectations of a US-Iran agreement, while concern grew over excessive investment in the semiconductor market and developments at CXMT. Moves in AI- and semiconductor-related stocks spread to the Japanese market, and the Nikkei 225 recorded a sharp rise on 8/5. However, movements in the yen and debate over the merits of coordinated intervention have been generating short-term volatility.