AppLovin shares have fallen 57% from their 2025 peak, and despite downward revisions to its second-quarter 2026 results, the company is seen as having the potential to reach $457 in 2028, supported by the outlook for improvements to its AI models and growth in its consumer business.
AppLovin reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $1.92 billion, slightly below market expectations but up 53% year on year, while adjusted EBITDA came in slightly below target. CEO Foroughi explained that the boost to advertiser spending from improvements to the company’s AI models began to emerge toward the end of the quarter.
During the same period, spending in the consumer (e-commerce) business was 28% higher despite the impact of seasonality. Overall, the company indicated that it expects long-term capital appreciation and intends to maintain revenue growth at around 30%. The market views the current share price as approximately $321, representing a substantial decline from its 2025 high.
TIKR’s model assumes a revenue growth rate of 28.5%, an operating margin of 78.4% and an exit P/E multiple of 15x, suggesting that the share price could rise to $457 within 2.3 years. This implies an estimated total return of approximately 43% and annualized growth of approximately 17%.
The model identifies the maturation of the AI-powered advertising platform and expansion of the consumer business as factors that will determine the stock’s upside potential. It also presents returns under scenarios with different revenue growth and margin assumptions.