Views are spreading that it will be difficult to hold a Japan-China summit alongside APEC in Shenzhen, with the outlook shifting toward 2028 or later. China's stance toward Japan and the state of preparations for the Xi Jinping administration (習近平) have been cited as the background.
It has been reported that, alongside APEC scheduled to be held in Shenzhen on the 18th and 19th, coordination for a formal summit between Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae (高市早苗) and China's President Xi Jinping (習近平) is currently facing difficulties, leaving the outlook for Japan-China dialogue uncertain. There are also views that President Trump may be expected to hold a US-China-Russia summit in Shenzhen, and some commentators say this would highlight Japan's isolation. Sources in China say Japan could become the only major participating country not to hold talks with Xi Jinping (習近平).
According to additional information from the Expert, the cancellation of the Japan-China summit now appears highly likely. Although China approached Japan after the extraordinary Diet session, the prime minister's policy speech weakened the signal of an improvement in relations. If there is no progress at APEC, the next opportunity will be delayed, increasing the likelihood that the timing for Xi Jinping's (習近平) new administration to solidify will be pushed back to spring 2028 or later. In the China-related operations of Japanese companies, yttrium exports have fallen sharply, raising concerns about depleted inventories.
Overall, opportunities for dialogue with China are susceptible to the effects of China's political schedule and domestic political cycles. If talks in Shenzhen do not take place, the likelihood will increase that momentum for dialogue will be delayed until spring 2028 or later.