In today's New York market, USD/JPY is expected to trade in a range without significant moves ahead of the FOMC and BOJ policy meetings and earnings from major U.S. tech companies. The U.S. midterm election outlook is also adding to market nervousness.
Japanese market participants expect trading in USD/JPY to be subdued ahead of key events, with the pair likely to remain within a limited range. This week's major events include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting, while earnings from U.S. megacap tech companies are also being watched as a potential source of market volatility.
The FOMC meeting is scheduled for the 27th–28th and the BOJ meeting for the 29th–30th, and the two events could determine the market's direction. Few economic indicators are due to be released in the days between these events, making a risk-averse stance more likely.
The U.S. midterm election outlook is expected to affect USD/JPY. If a Democratic "blue wave," in which the party takes majorities in both chambers, appears increasingly likely ahead of the 3 November vote, concerns could spread about tighter regulation in the AI sector and stronger antitrust enforcement, potentially increasing the risk of declines in U.S. technology stocks. This could create pressure to sell dollars and buy yen.
The expected daily range is around ¥157.52–158.60 on the upside and around ¥156.07 on the downside. The area around the lower boundary of the cloud in the daily Ichimoku chart is also cited as a downside guide.