Based on the BOJ’s October “Summary of Opinions,” the focus is on assessing the possibility of a rate hike at the December meeting. Expectations for easing tensions in the Middle East and caution over the US CPI are also expected to influence the market.
The dollar-yen rate fell temporarily to ¥157.67 in New York trading on the 9th, but losses were limited on expectations of easing tensions in the Middle East, while the euro rose on lower crude oil prices. The euro-yen rate also rose against a backdrop of higher share prices. Against this background, the outlook for the Japanese market is expected to develop in line with movements in the dollar-yen rate.
The focus is on reassessing the possibility of a rate hike at the December meeting while gauging today’s BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting “Summary of Opinions.” Some also expect caution over the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to cap gains.
Technically, the upper boundary of the daily Ichimoku cloud and the level of the 200-day moving average are attracting attention, while weakness in crude oil prices is also expected to be a market focus. Although views remain that the BOJ maintains a hawkish stance, fluctuations are expected depending on domestic and overseas economic developments.
BOJ Governor Ueda expressed the view that underlying inflation would remain around 2%, while stating his intention to maintain appropriate monetary policy adjustments over the long term. Meanwhile, Policy Board member Asada, who is associated with the reflationist camp, has taken a cautious stance on the September rate-hike decision.