The Nikkei Average closed yesterday up 3.3% at ¥68,956.72. A technical interpretation was presented based on the ¥65,800-¥66,700 range indicated in the previous report dated 10 September.
On 1 October, the Nikkei Average rose ¥2,203, or 3.3%, from the previous day to close at ¥68,956.72. On a daily basis, this was roughly the first close in about 1.5 months since 17 August, and an interpretation based on the ¥65,800-¥66,700 range was presented.
The Ichikawa Report explains that yesterday’s rise in the stock price was interpreted as a strong buy signal, based on the Nikkei Average’s movement near the lower boundary of ¥65,800 and upper boundary of ¥66,700 of a triangle consolidation pattern, as well as its movement within the Ichimoku cloud. However, trading value on the TSE Prime Market was ¥8.7 trillion, below the average of ¥10.9 trillion for the first half of the fiscal year.
The simultaneous breakout above the triangle consolidation pattern and bullish signal from the three Ichimoku indicators raised the possibility of an uptrend, according to the report. At the same time, the possibility of a false signal was noted, with attention focused on whether the index can break above ¥69,608 and move beyond the upper resistance line of the triangle consolidation pattern and the upper boundary of the cloud.
Looking at overall market momentum, the Nikkei Average’s rise stood out on 1 October, while the rise in the TSE Prime Market Index was limited, and the numbers of advancing and declining stocks were evenly matched. The report suggested that movements in AI-related and semiconductor stocks may have lifted the Nikkei Average, concluding that future developments should be monitored closely together with trends in trading value and the number of advancing and declining stocks.