A preview examining market reactions and forecasts for Nvidia’s second-quarter results and third-quarter guidance. The focus is on whether revenue can exceed the forecast of around $92 billion.
Nvidia has exceeded Wall Street expectations for four consecutive quarters, but its share price has also fallen at times following earnings releases. Current market consensus calls for second-quarter revenue of around $92 billion, while the options market is pricing in a share price move of approximately 6% following the earnings release.
Second-quarter revenue consensus is around $92 billion, while the company’s guidance is $91 billion ±2%. Some bank forecasts point to $94 billion–$95 billion, making the gap between those estimates and the company’s published guidance a key focus for any surprise.
For the third quarter, market consensus is around $103.7 billion–$104 billion, while a Boston-based institution expects $107 billion–$108 billion. Gross margin is expected to be near 75%, making the trajectory of margins, alongside the scale of growth, a key area of focus.
The options market is pricing in substantial event risk, and the share price move following the earnings release could exceed its historical average. The share price reaction varied across the past four earnings releases, and the outcome is expected to depend on external factors including the breadth of AI demand.