Next week will see a concentration of monetary policy meetings at major central banks, including the FOMC, ECB and Bank of Japan, while attention will also focus on developments in the French protests and the situation in the Middle East. Depending on interest-rate outlooks in each country and market reactions, the foreign exchange and bond markets could be affected.
Next week will see major monetary policy meetings in the United States, Europe and Japan, including the FOMC. The Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged from its September meeting. Indicators including core PCE and third-quarter GDP are also expected to be a focus for the market.
The ECB is expected to leave policy unchanged at its regular Governing Council meeting, and attention will also focus on President Lagarde's views. The Bank of Japan is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged, with indications that it is assessing the possibility of a rate hike in December. The Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are also reportedly likely to raise rates by 0.25%.
Large-scale protests are planned in France on the 17th and 24th, following earlier demonstrations, and the deployment of local police is expected to increase by 20%. Concerns have been raised that fiscal and political uncertainty in France could affect the growth outlook for Europe as a whole.
Market attention is also focused on developments surrounding the US midterm elections, as well as the situation in the Middle East and developments in oil markets. The course of the French protests and uncertainty over Europe's debt problems could affect policy decisions by the FOMC, ECB and Bank of Japan. Attention is also warranted on developments in Brazil's presidential election and the Israeli election.