In the New York market on the 14th, dollar-yen temporarily reached the ¥155 range, WTI rose to the $104 range, and the US 10-year Treasury yield temporarily climbed to around 5.012%. The pair subsequently corrected lower to around ¥153.99. Markets are likely to monitor the impact of next week's FOMC and BOJ meeting as reflected in movements in crude oil and interest rates.
Dollar-yen temporarily rose to ¥155.00 in the New York market. WTI crude oil briefly surged to the upper $104 range, while the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 5.0121% before losing ground and falling to the 4.93% range. Euro-dollar fell to $1.1523 as US long-term interest rates rose.
In today's Tokyo market, dollar-yen is expected to remain firm against the backdrop of expectations for a 0.25% rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), higher crude oil prices and persistently elevated US long-term interest rates. However, upside may be capped by caution ahead of the BOJ meeting.
The FOMC is expected to raise the federal funds target range by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75%-4.00%. Attention will focus on the outlook for the timing of the next rate hike and whether the Federal Reserve's monetary policy change will be a one-off event.
The BOJ is also expected to raise its policy rate by 0.25% at its 17-18 meeting, raising the possibility that the interval from the June hike will be shortened and that another hike could take place in December or March next year. There are also concerns that a future review of the GPIF's basic portfolio could affect the yen exchange rate.