Backtest results for November using historical data for Nikkei 225 constituents (225 stocks) have been published. The win rate was high at approximately 58%, and the analysis indicated that the overall market may trend upward in November. It also presented a ranking of stocks that performed poorly in November.
A backtest was conducted on Nikkei 225 constituents using a period from 1 January 2000 to 30 September 2026. The conditions were to buy at the opening price at the end of October and sell at the opening price on the next business day after 25 days. The investment amount was set at ¥200,000 per stock, and historical data was used to analyse November trends.
The results showed a win rate of 58.55%, average P&L of +2.36%, average profit of approximately +9.23%, average loss of approximately -7.28%, and total P&L of approximately ¥25,785,990. Overall, because the win rate exceeded half and average P&L per trade was positive, November was considered likely to show an upward trend across the overall market.
The ranking of poor-performing stocks in November included stocks with win rates of 45% or less. The examples given were Socionext, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha and NEC. These stocks were identified as requiring particular caution as November trading candidates.
The article cautioned that this backtest was based on historical data and that similar results may not be achieved in the future. It also stated that system-trading backtesting software was used, and that the results were provided as one reference for individual investors.