In an August investor survey, 2,338 individual investors expressed uncertainty about the Nikkei Stock Average in the short term while maintaining a bullish view over the medium to long term. Expectations for a stronger yen are gaining ground, while interest in Japanese equities is increasing.
The survey was conducted from 24 to 26 August 2026 and received responses from more than 2,300 individual investors. The Nikkei Stock Average ended trading at ¥66,311 at the end of August. Trends in AI and semiconductor-related stocks were cited as factors behind the rise, while persistently high interest rates and geopolitical risks continued to support the market.
The Nikkei outlook DI was +1.11 one month ahead and +26.90 three months ahead, with both figures improving from the previous survey. In the one-month outlook breakdown, the neutral camp accounted for more than 60%, while the bullish and bearish camps were nearly evenly matched. The medium-term outlook has become more bullish, suggesting firm downside support.
In the three-month outlook breakdown, the bullish camp accounted for 41.53%. A reading above 40% is relatively unusual in recent periods, indicating a situation in which near-term uncertainty coexists with a bullish medium- to long-term stance. The results of the US midterm elections toward late November and expectations for the year-end market are believed to have contributed to the bullish outlook.
In terms of market conditions, the Nikkei has remained above ¥65,000 in September while trading within the range bounded by the 25-day and 75-day moving averages. Depending on how conditions develop, interest-rate trends could still become a new source of downside pressure.