In European and US foreign exchange markets on the 14th, dollar-yen is expected to rise into the upper ¥159 range at times, while expectations for US monetary tightening are receding and concerns over measures to curb yen selling are spreading.
In European and US foreign exchange markets on the 14th, dollar-yen is expected to struggle to rise. While the dollar-buying trend is likely to continue amid uncertainty over the situation in the Middle East, some expect the momentum behind dollar buying to weaken following lackluster economic data. Euro-dollar softened to the ¥1.1520 range, while dollar-yen rose from around ¥159 to the mid-¥159 range at times. In Asian trading, the dollar moved in the ¥159 range amid thin trading.
The main focuses ahead are US monetary policy and the situation in the Middle East. The Trump administration's policy of tightening sanctions on Iran and firm oil prices could make it difficult to sell the dollar. Meanwhile, US retail sales due to be released tonight are expected to show slower growth, and the fading prospect of an early Federal Reserve rate hike is likely to contribute to lower US yields and a weaker dollar. However, yen selling driven by concerns over Japan's fiscal position is expected to continue, and intervention concerns could intensify when dollar-yen approaches ¥160.
Scheduled releases of key data include second-quarter GDP for Europe and the euro area, US retail sales, US business inventories and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Depending on the results, these releases could again affect dollar-yen and interest rate movements.