This report covers the morning USD/JPY forecast and key points to watch at the FOMC. The expected range this morning is 153.600 to 156.600 yen, with the focus on whether the FOMC delivers the hawkish outcome expected by the market.
The morning USD/JPY forecast places the expected range at 153.600 to 156.600 yen. It was prepared at 7:30 a.m. on 16 September 2026 and written and reviewed by a currency analyst at Gaitame.com Research Institute.
Looking back at the previous day, USD/JPY rose approximately 0.5% on a closing-price basis. The dollar was bought as US 10-year Treasury yields rose to their highest level in 19 years, driven by higher oil prices and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, with USD/JPY breaking above 155.00 yen and rising to around 155.23 yen. The market is pricing in a more than 90% probability of a 25bp rate hike at the September FOMC, and expectations are growing that the Fed will raise rates.
Market attention is focused on the interest-rate projections, or dot plot, released alongside the policy rate decision, as well as comments from Fed Chair Warsh. Depending on their content, USD/JPY could move either higher or lower.