This analysis examines whether the upward revision to the current fiscal year's earnings forecast will affect the investment case for Intuitive Surgical, focusing on the outlook for growth in surgical procedures in 2026 and the growth forecast through 2029.
As a leader in the robotic surgery market, Intuitive Surgical expects the number of da Vinci procedures to increase 14%–15% in fiscal 2026 and is targeting approximately 15% year-on-year revenue growth in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. This is expected to be supported by high-margin recurring revenue from instruments, accessories and services.
Current forecasts call for revenue to grow to $15.5 billion and profit to $4.8 billion by 2029, with revenue growing at an annual rate of approximately 11.9% and the profit margin improving from the current 28.4% to 30.7%. The stock is valued at approximately 43.5x forecast 2029 earnings, while a target price of $476.34 has been indicated. Bearish forecasts range down to $324, while bullish forecasts reach as high as $685.
A gradual decline in shares outstanding is also assumed, which is seen as a factor supporting a modest increase in EPS. Analysts continue to view growth in the surgical platform business and the high margins of instruments and digital products as central to the investment case, while pressure on capital spending in China and Europe and the impact of new competitors remain key areas to monitor.
Another scenario that includes digital tools and MI+ subscriptions projects revenue of approximately $17.4 billion, profit of approximately $5.1 billion and a P/E ratio of 53.7x in 2029. Changes to the board lineup could provide a basis for comparing and evaluating the various scenarios.