The Nikkei Average opened 1 October more than ¥2,000 higher. AI and semiconductor stocks led the gains, with the sustainability of the AI market rally examined from four perspectives and through the 25% rule.
The Nikkei Average ended trading sharply higher on 1 October, gaining ¥2,203 to close at ¥68,956. AI and semiconductor stocks led the advance, while TOPIX and the TSE Growth Market, among others, posted comparatively modest gains. Ahead of earnings announcements in Japan and the United States, technical indicators, including the index's move above its 75-day moving average, also suggested room for further gains. MU's strong earnings and an improvement in the BOJ Tankan survey acted as buying catalysts.
Four perspectives are cited for assessing the sustainability of the AI market rally: demand, expectations and growth; physical resources; funding conditions; and environmental changes and responses to challenges. Organizing the current market situation along these lines suggests that demand for AI investment may continue, although concerns about resource shortages and rising costs remain. The chart summarizes these key points.