Semiconductor earnings from TSMC and others, as well as US CPI, will draw attention this week. Developments in US interest rates and the impact of foreign exchange movements are also expected to remain areas of concern.
Fisco, an investment information company, reviewed market developments from 5 to 9 October and discussed the market outlook for 13 to 16 October. The Nikkei 225 ended last week at ¥69,030.92, up ¥721.46 from the previous Friday, advancing to levels above ¥70,000 for the first time since July. The backdrop was a retreat in concerns over US interest-rate hikes after the employment data fell short of market expectations.
Profit-taking intensified in the latter half of the week, with views emerging that a pullback had followed the earlier upside, particularly in AI- and semiconductor-related stocks. Market sentiment was affected by developments in US equities, concerns over rising long-term interest rates, a decline in the US SOX Index, and reduced expectations for OpenAI's revenue.
Concerns over the situation in the Middle East eased somewhat following remarks by President Trump. US Treasury yields fell at times after the Treasury auction passed without disruption, but interest-rate developments remained a headwind, with the 10-year Treasury yield briefly reaching a high of 5.36% on the 7th. Retail sales and CPI releases are expected to be the market's main focus this week.
Among domestic corporate earnings, Yaskawa Electric cut its full-year forecast, but its operating profit and orders for June–August were viewed as having exceeded market expectations. The full-scale release of June–August earnings may provide clues for individual stock selection.