Growing demand for data centers driven by the AI rush, along with competition to secure power, is creating investment opportunities. With the peak in data center completions expected in 2026, this article outlines the key points to watch among related stocks.
Demand for data centers is expanding with the spread of AI and cloud services, and the 4 hyperscalers' capital investment in 2024 rose 58% year on year to $244 billion. Investment is expected to grow further in 2025, with the combined total for 5 major companies forecast to reach $660–690 billion in 2026. Approximately 75% of this is expected to be allocated to AI infrastructure. Against the backdrop of large-scale GPU server procurement, companies are increasingly building and operating data centers themselves.
Investment in domestic data centers is also accelerating, with an IDC Japan survey forecasting that the market will exceed ¥1 trillion in 2028. Driven by rising demand from 2026 onward, construction costs have surged to approximately 1.5 times their level a year earlier, and investment in completed data centers is expected to exceed previous levels. Optage, a member of the Kansai Electric Power Group, plans to begin operating an AI data center in fiscal 2026 using electricity from the Mihama Nuclear Power Plant, while development centered on renewable electricity is also advancing in Hokkaido.
The benefits received by data center-related stocks differ by layer. The sector can be divided into 5 layers: data center operations and construction, optical communications, power equipment, and materials. Construction is expected to make its largest contribution in 2026–2028, while operations-related businesses are expected to contribute in earnest from 2027–2028 onward. Companies involved in air conditioning, energy storage, and power infrastructure are attracting attention as peripheral plays, with trends in order backlogs and the proportion of sales attributable to data centers serving as key indicators.
Risks to data center investment include pressure on the cost of capital from overinvestment and the impact of electricity prices and regulation. It is important to focus on actual demand and earnings support rather than becoming overly swayed by the short-term theme, and peripheral stocks that have lagged may contain the sector's next leading performers. Water-resource risks and spillover effects involving energy storage batteries are also points to watch.