The Nikkei 225 fell back, struggled to advance ahead of the 200-day moving average at ¥62090, and closed below the 10-day moving average at ¥61303 with a bearish candlestick for the first time in 4 sessions. RSI declined, while the Ichimoku conversion line provided support.
The Nikkei 225 fell from the previous day, closing below the 200-day moving average at ¥62090. Although buying led the market initially, the index struggled to advance. In the short term, movements in technical indicators acted as a drag, with the market focused on the balance between rebounds and pullbacks.
As expected, the Nikkei traded below the 10-day moving average at ¥61303 and formed a bearish candlestick for the first time in 4 sessions. The 9-day RSI fell from 38.4% to 33.2% as of 11/12, indicating increasing short-term downward pressure.
Meanwhile, the decline was limited as the Ichimoku conversion line at ¥60667 provided support. The 5-day moving average may turn upward, and movements in the conversion line and changes in overhead resistance are likely to determine the next phase.
Potential upside targets include the 10-day and 200-day moving averages, the psychological levels of ¥63000 and ¥64000, and the recent high of ¥64831. Potential downside targets include the conversion line, the 5-day moving average, ¥59000 and ¥58000, the low of ¥56745, and ¥56000 and ¥55000.
Overall, the market remains within the scope of a self-driven rebound, and the correction from the early-October high is expected to continue. However, situations in which short-term indicators act as resistance, as they did today, are likely to remain possible.