The 208th 外為短観 (FX Market Survey) found that expectations for a stronger US dollar and weaker yen had strengthened following monetary policy announcements in the US and Japan. Readers gave the ¥158–¥160 range as their most common forecast for USD/JPY at year-end.
The 208th survey of 外為どっとコム account holders was conducted from 18 to 22 September 2026 and received 406 valid responses. The analysis was conducted by the 外為どっとコム Research Institute.
In Question 1, a high proportion of respondents expected USD/JPY to move toward a stronger US dollar and weaker yen over the next month. The highest forecast was ¥164.80, while the lowest forecasts ranged from ¥146 to ¥154. The median was ¥160.00 for the high and around ¥154.00 for the low, with expectations for both shifting slightly toward yen weakness as the market rate declined.
For EUR/JPY in Question 2, respondents expected a high of ¥190.00 and a low of ¥161.00. The median forecasts for both the high and low shifted from the previous month toward a stronger yen and weaker euro. Statements from the ECB and other factors were cited as influences.
For AUD/JPY in Question 3, the highest forecast was ¥120.00 and the lowest was ¥94.00. The median forecasts for the high and low both moved from the previous month toward a stronger yen and weaker Australian dollar.
For GBP/JPY in Question 4, the highest forecast was ¥222.00 and the lowest was ¥190.00. The median forecasts for the high and low moved from the previous month toward a stronger yen and weaker pound. Questions 5 through 8 found that the US dollar was the currency respondents most wanted to buy, while the yen was the currency they most wanted to sell. The ¥158–¥160 range was the most common forecast for USD/JPY before the end of the year, cited by 32.3% of respondents.