After the summer holidays in August, global markets face six risk factors, including geopolitical conditions, monetary policy and developments related to AI. Attention will focus on the course of the war, decisions by major central banks, trends in AI stocks, fiscal policy priorities, UK politics and the impact of elections to the US Congress.
After the August holidays, the war between the United States and Israel and Iran could become a factor driving crude oil and natural gas prices through uncertainty over maritime shipping routes, with possible effects on the performance of energy-related companies and government bond markets. Markets are assessing when and how the Strait of Hormuz will reopen while seeking to gauge the course of geopolitical and economic realignment.
The Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are expected to hold monetary policy meetings in the same week, raising concerns about greater volatility in interest rates and foreign exchange markets. Remarks by Fed Chair Warsh, the impact of fiscal intervention and future central bank communications could affect market confidence and interest-rate trends.
Amid strong investment enthusiasm in the AI sector, attention is focused on the IPO of Anthropic, the developer of generative AI model Claude. The company is reportedly targeting a fundraising round of up to $100 billion. Some observers believe enthusiasm over valuations of AI-related stocks could spread to other stocks.
The French government is expected to submit next year's budget proposal soon, and a political battle is expected over efforts to contain the fiscal deficit. State parliamentary elections in Germany and the new UK government's policy management have also been identified as issues of interest for markets.
With the US congressional midterm elections approaching, campaigning is expected to gather pace from September onward. Gasoline prices will be a concern for consumers and could also affect long-term interest rates.