Last week, the South African rand/yen pair moved out of the panic market and into a recovery phase. After dipping to around ¥9.73, it continued to recover toward the mid-¥9.8 range and reached ¥9.89 on the 13th.
Last week, the market saw the unwinding of panic-driven yen buying come to an end, while the South African rand regained its composure. The pair dipped to around ¥9.73 at the start of the week, but then gradually raised its lows and held in the ¥9.8 range.
It rose as high as ¥9.8940 on the 13th, while trading remained range-bound in the ¥9.81–¥9.85 range toward the weekend. Fear following the 3 August sell-off faded, and the market began to focus on a shift toward recovery.
On the fundamentals, the South African rand attracted buying as panic receded and funds returned to commodity-linked currencies, while in Japan, the completion of losses on yen carry trades and easing excessive caution supported the market. Technically, resistance at ¥9.89 and ¥9.90 remained in focus, leaving some caution over further gains.
This week, the focus will be on the contest between the upper ¥9.8 range and just below ¥9.9. Although a rapid rise on a break above ¥9.90 is anticipated, pressure from selling into rebounds also warrants attention. The expected range is broadly ¥9.75–¥9.90, while the alternative scenario envisages a move with the ¥10 level also coming into view.