Next week’s key events include the release and developments surrounding the BOJ’s Summary of Opinions, Tokyo CPI, the RBA’s policy rate, U.S. employment data and PCE prices. The background to each event includes movements in oil prices and the effects of government policy.
Attention next week will focus on discussions surrounding the BOJ’s Summary of Opinions. While the view has emerged that 2 members at the BOJ meeting argued for keeping rates unchanged, overseas investors are strengthening their expectations for a dovish rate hike.
The possibility of accelerating growth in Tokyo CPI has also been highlighted as the next indicator of prices in Tokyo, with some pointing to the impact of government policy.
As for the RBA’s policy rate, a rate hike is considered largely priced in, and expectations are emerging for a more hawkish stance in response to higher oil prices. In this context, views have been reported that Australian consumer prices could exceed 4% year on year, with rising motor fuel costs expected to push up inflation.
In the United States, the release of employment data and PCE prices is scheduled, and it has been suggested that strong results could reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance. This would likely bring the direction of U.S. monetary policy back into the market spotlight.
The schedule also includes the release of the BOJ’s minutes and overseas economic indicators, which could affect market trends. Next week will see a succession of key events in Japan, the United States and Europe, making it necessary for investment decisions to take multiple data points and policy comments into account.