Hedge fund yen buying was a major influence on the yen's movements in September, alongside the impact of US and Japanese policies. The yen is expected to trade in a ¥152–¥160 range in October, with the first week likely to center on ¥155–¥160.
In September, the US dollar/yen exchange rate temporarily moved toward yen strength in the ¥152 range before recovering to nearly ¥159. Hedge fund-led speculative yen buying was cited as a factor, and CFTC positioning statistics also indicated a shift toward yen buying.
Regarding movements around the 120-day moving average, the shift from yen selling to yen buying gained strength in September. Aggressive hedge fund yen buying was seen as increasing the possibility of breaking through the ¥155 barrier. The yen weakened again after US and Japanese monetary policy announcements, reaching ¥159, but the move was subsequently restrained by intervention speculation and comments on policy toward Japan.
The October outlook points to stronger US involvement, including by Secretary Bessent, to prevent further yen depreciation. A ¥152–¥160 range is assumed for October, particularly ¥155–¥160 for the first week. The yen may continue to move on developments related to maintaining confidence in the currency.