The morning USD/JPY outlook points to average hourly earnings as the key factor in determining expectations for an early Fed rate hike following the US jobs data, with the expected range set at ¥157.200-159.000.
Created at 7:40 a.m. on 2 October 2026. A currency analyst at Gaika dot com Research Institute provides the morning outlook for USD/JPY and the key focus of the US employment report. Ahead of the US jobs data, expectations for an early Fed rate hike are expected to depend on wage indicators.
The expected USD/JPY range was given as ¥157.200-159.000. In the previous day's trading, the yen weakened following the Tankan survey and other data used by the Bank of Japan in assessing monetary policy at its policy meeting. USD/JPY could move again depending on US long-term interest rates.
Today's key indicator is the wage data in the US September employment report, particularly growth in average hourly earnings. The view presented is that wage growth, rather than changes in the number of employees alone, could help contain inflation. Strong wages could strengthen expectations for a Fed rate hike.
The article also states that the full report is available through the Gaika dot com report, and includes links to the latest charts and related materials.