The Nikkei Average is expected to open higher on the 3rd, supported by gains in US stocks and a pause in the rise in US long-term interest rates. Buying interest in semiconductor and AI-related stocks is expected to emerge, with gains potentially continuing under the leadership of futures.
Buying is expected to lead in the Tokyo stock market on the 3rd, following gains in US stocks and a pause in the rise in US long-term interest rates. Investor sentiment improved after New York Fed President Williams referred to easing inflation and ADP employment data came in below expectations. Chicago Nikkei 225 futures ended trading ¥385 above the Osaka close, suggesting that the cash market is likely to open by converging toward this level.
Among individual stocks, Nvidia rose 3.2% and led the NY Dow, with buying in semiconductor and AI-related stocks expected to spill over into the domestic market. A rebound in large-cap stocks such as Advantest, Tokyo Electron and SoftBank Group points to a futures-led rise. The yen's depreciation against the dollar has eased, with the dollar-yen pair in the upper ¥158 range, potentially prompting rebalancing in export-related stocks.
In the US market on the 2nd, the Dow rebounded by 295 points and the Nasdaq rose 118 points. President Williams stressed the need to assess monetary policy and said he believed the impact of higher energy prices had not spread to other sectors. The increase in ADP employment fell short of market expectations, while US long-term interest rates declined. This provided a tailwind for the stock market.
In the domestic market, attention is likely to focus on large-cap stocks as a potential catalyst for lifting the Nikkei Average, following buying in semiconductor and AI-related stocks. Futures temporarily declined during overnight trading but later recovered, and market conditions are viewed as conducive to buying on dips above the lower minus-one-standard-deviation Bollinger Band level.