[Today's Macroeconomy] BOJ Reportedly Plans 25bp Rate Hike in September, Oil Near Six-Week Highs

The story

Reports that the Bank of Japan plans to raise rates by 25bp at its September monetary policy meeting have spread, while expectations of a 50bp hike have receded. The yen's appreciation momentum has eased, and dollar-yen rebounded after temporarily extending its decline.

Crude oil prices rose against a backdrop of worsening conditions in the Middle East. WTI was reported to be in the ¥93–95 range, while Brent was around ¥100, putting both in their highest ranges in approximately six weeks. Rising energy prices are a focus for the market.

In the US market, the probability of an FOMC rate hike was seen at around 60%, with rising oil prices and inflation concerns among the factors pushing up interest-rate expectations. Next week's PPI and CPI data are expected to be the immediate focus.

At a glance

Yen trendAs of 9 September, the yen's appreciation momentum has temporarily stalled, and dollar-yen has rebounded.

Crude oilWTI has risen to the ¥93–95 range and Brent to around ¥100, according to reports, putting both in their highest ranges in approximately six weeks.

Bank of Japan policyReports that the Bank of Japan plans to raise rates by 25bp at its September meeting have prompted widespread speculation that expectations of a 50bp hike have receded.

GPIFRemarks by Health, Labour and Welfare Minister Ueno (上野) have reportedly reduced expectations that GPIF will increase its allocation to domestic bonds.

FOMC oddsThe market sees around a 60% probability of an FOMC rate hike next week, with the PPI and CPI data expected to be the focus.

Reference information. Every claim resolves to something the story actually named.

What it links to

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Where this came from

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