Movements in USD/JPY around ¥160 are unlikely to be resolved by a single intervention, and market trends and changes in large investors’ positions following the coordinated Japan-U.S. intervention appear likely to determine what happens next.
Although the coordinated Japan-U.S. intervention was carried out on 31 July 2026, the market subsequently showed periods of moving back toward yen strength, and the ¥160 range has not been decisively broken. The view that intervention alone cannot change the market’s broad direction is gaining ground.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s remark on 8 September, “I am the house,” has prompted the view that it may indicate an investor who was previously a forecaster moving to the policy side. In practice, factors such as long-term interest-rate differentials and real-demand yen selling remain more influential than the coordinated Japan-U.S. intervention’s direct effect.
Expectations of a faster pace of rate hikes by the Bank of Japan and pressure from the United States are prompting large investors to rebuild yen short positions. Market participants point to moves to review strategies that once focused exclusively on selling the yen, amid concerns about intervention risks and policy shifts.
The structural factors driving yen depreciation, including the Japan-U.S. interest-rate differential, U.S. interest-rate trends and the current asset allocation of GPIF, remain in place, making it unclear whether ¥160 will be seen again. In light of the 2012 example, a shift in large investors’ positioning could become a turning point.