AI is beginning to affect new graduate hiring plans at Japanese companies. A survey found that 21.9% of companies would reduce hiring from fiscal 2029 onward.
A survey of Japanese companies' new graduate hiring plans found that 21.9% of companies would reduce hiring from fiscal 2029 onward, against a backdrop of more efficient operations through the use of AI. 3.2% of companies would reduce hiring of new university graduates for the next fiscal year, while 10.4% planned or considered reducing hiring in fiscal 2028. The findings suggest that medium- to long-term adjustments are becoming more prominent than short-term moves.
Office-based positions were cited most frequently as highly susceptible to replacement by AI, at 87.5%, while management positions and technical roles such as IT and engineering were each cited by only 25% of companies. Companies are moving away from strategies focused simply on increasing the number of new graduates hired and strengthening their selection of candidates with skills that are less susceptible to replacement by AI and expertise needed for future growth.
Looking at hiring plans for the next fiscal year, hiring numbers declined in 23 of the 42 industries. Hiring declined in 11 manufacturing industries and 12 non-manufacturing industries, while Kioxia plans to increase its hiring of university graduates next spring by 32.9%, amid strong demand related to AI development. Hiring conditions are diverging by industry and job type.
It is difficult to conclude that overall labor demand is weakening, and Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare has indicated that employment and job-offer conditions remain at high levels. The proportion of university graduates leaving their jobs within 3 years of employment declined from the previous year, while demand trends differ substantially across industries. The impact of AI adoption on hiring may vary depending on the share of office-based positions, demand for digital transformation, and the severity of labor shortages.