外為どっとコム asked two experts to analyze the USD/JPY market in the second half of 2026. The article examines why BOJ rate hikes are not stopping yen depreciation and organizes the capital flows behind the yen's decline.
This article reviews the USD/JPY market in the second half of 2026, BOJ monetary policy and the structural factors behind yen depreciation, based on the latest views of Takachiho University Professor Uchida Minoru (内田 稔) and Kimura Taro (木村太郎) of Bloomberg Economics, who were invited by 外為どっとコム's Maneiku Channel. Both experts expressed the view that yen depreciation is unlikely to be halted by the US-Japan interest rate differential alone.
Uchida Minoru (内田 稔) analyzed negative short-term real interest rates as the root cause of yen depreciation. He expects real interest rates could turn positive during the period of rising interest rates later this year through the first half of next year, even if the policy rate is raised to 1.25% by year-end, as CPI developments have not yet provided a factor for a positive shift. He also pointed out that rising long-term interest rates are influenced by expected inflation and the fiscal risk premium, making them unlikely to provide a strong reason for yen appreciation.
Kimura Taro (木村太郎) identified October as the most likely timing for the BOJ's next rate hike, while explaining that structural yen-selling pressure from the expansion of outward foreign direct investment is a contributing factor. He pointed out that a BOJ rate hike alone is unlikely to bring about a shift to a yen appreciation trend, as overseas investment by domestic companies will continue to support yen depreciation through capital outflows. He also indicated that the conditions for a shift toward yen appreciation could change depending on developments in the US economy.
Overall, both experts focused on deeper factors behind yen depreciation, including real interest rate levels and structural changes in capital flows, rather than a simple interpretation based on the US-Japan interest rate differential. In the second half of 2026, the timing of BOJ rate hikes, the FRB's policy direction, the US midterm elections and market views on fiscal policy are expected to be key areas of focus. The article concluded that it will be important to look beyond short-term price movements and understand the direction of the fundamentals.